百年來最大的全球生豬產業鏈危機已至！非瘟可能已經在北美出現……

畜牧人小李

我們的老祖宗在造詞的時候，是非常樸素辯證的。危機這個詞，危中有機，機會只留給有準備的企業，史詩級豬周期已經正式在全球拉開了大幕。

目前非瘟的爆發可以從OIE的官方數據來判斷，注意觀察我重點標注的俄羅斯“亞洲部分”疫情，招商證券講的東北疫情爆發，已經可以認為實錘。全球生豬產業鏈正在面臨最大的挑戰。最近聽說一個詞叫不開心小豬，懂的人自然懂。以下是我從OIE摘取的亞洲疫情信息：①：8月上半個月，東歐正在大爆發，整個歐洲由于非瘟，短短的十五天內損失了161138頭豬，其中僅保加利亞就損失了126,169頭豬，這時候亞洲疫情相對平穩，僅2903頭。與此同時，中國發生5起，其中東北3起疫情（高速檢查2起，野豬一起），這個時候，中俄邊境的俄羅斯同時爆發了3起疫情，疑似野豬傳播，這是個征兆。

②：8月下半個月歐洲有所好轉，損失下降至30000多，越南在全球累計爆發的8075起疫情中，占了絕大多數，6082起，實在是很驚人，由于中國只爆發了一百多起疫情，美國起初低估了疫情的嚴重性，但是越南的數據已經給美國人敲響了警鐘，很多專家開始如臨大敵。此時中俄邊境的俄羅斯又爆發了一起。中國云南爆發一起。

③：在8.30~9.12 這半個月，歐洲有所平緩，但是亞洲還在爆發，而且是多點開花，疫情在北方有抬頭的趨勢。國內在寧夏有一起疫情，香港一起疫情。菲律賓爆發了第一起疫情。中俄邊境的俄羅斯爆發了17起。注意，東北的邊境線對面開始多點開花。從8月的4起，在短短的14天內增加了17起。

④：在9.13~9.26時間段，東歐繼續爆發疫情。與此同時亞洲的疫情也有所抬頭，需要注意的是，在這短短的半個月內，疫情已經傳到了南韓，與此同時，廣西又爆發了一起。最嚴重的是，中俄邊境的俄羅斯境內又爆發了10起。也就是說從8.30~9.26,中俄邊境的俄羅斯已經爆發了27起。

⑤：9.27~10.10，一切開始的地方肯尼亞，爆發了一起，非洲開始出現較大規模的爆發。亞洲：韓國爆發了8起，老撾爆發47起，俄羅斯亞洲部分爆發17起，東歐雖然豬群損失減少，但是疫情不斷。

⑥：10.11~10.24，疫情暫時放緩，但是韓國在這短短幾天爆發了12起，俄羅斯又爆發了兩起。需要注意的是，中國廣西又爆發了一起。

綜上所述，疫情并不樂觀，和去年的爆發時間何等相似，東北應該又開始了，有國際專家認為這個是野豬流竄造成的，一旦病毒在野豬種群內播撒，就很難控制。我們又不太可能學習川普建個邊境墻。如下圖：

最后，以一則新聞收尾：根據Pipestone獸醫服務的Scott Dee博士推斷，非瘟可能已經在北美出現了，這將在疫情開始的第一年對美國農業造成160億美元的損失，并導致美國這一年無法對外出口豬肉。GIRA的Rupert Claxton認為，2019年，中國的豬肉會減產1800萬噸，而2020年將會減產2400萬噸。會議的最后，由我最欣賞的大佬Brett Stuart發表講話，他再一次講到：中國可能永遠也無法恢復18年的豬種群數量，并且無法從全球進口這一塊來彌補豬肉短缺，現在很多散養戶明知道可能會再次中招，但是他們為了頭均400美元的利潤，重新沖了進來，這和賭博無異，也不利于中國的疫情控制。

Astark warning has been given to the global pork industry that African swine Fever (ASF) may already have hit North America.Speaking on the Global Meat News webinar on the epidemic, Dr Scott Dee of Pipestone Veterinary Services said he believes that ASF is already in North America despite the best efforts of the authorities to prevent it reaching the continent."The chances of keeping the virus out of North America are very slim. We import a lot of product from China that the virus can survive in. My guess is that the virus has already entered the country and enters it regularly at port level. What we have going for us is that it hasn't jumped over to pigs so we haven't seen it replicate. I think we're getting bombarded with it at port level."Impact on the pork marketIf it does hit North America, Dee said it would have a dramatic impact on the sector. "We're [analysts] estimating a $16bn loss to the US agricultural industry in the very first year, we won't be able to export pork and there will be an impact on other proteins."He advised producers to "ramp up biosecurity to the highest levels" in order to prevent the spread of the disease.During the webinar, meat director at GIRA Rupert Claxton explained that there will be a decline of 18m tonnes in China this year with another 6m tonnes gone predicted for 2020. He warned that while this would provide an opportunity to sell pork into China over the next five years, it wouldn't last forever. Claxton added that some producers are opting to neglect domestic markets in order to make more now but that this may require a rebalancing down the line. Also speaking in the webinar was National Pig Association chief executive Zoe Davies who took us through what is being done in the UK to prevent the disease entering the country but said that current measures are not adequate and more needs to be done. Chief executive officer of Global AgriTrends Brett Stuart rounded off the presentations and warned that China may never fully recover in terms of pork production and doubted if global producers would be able to make up the shortfall. He also said that some backyard producers in China are attempting to take advantage of soaring pork prices by restarting production without waiting for a vaccine to be developed in order to make money now"These farmers are desperate and taking risks. They assume they're going get ASF again but they stand to make up to $400 per head so are taking that gamble. This desperation in the market is not good for Chinese efforts to contain ASF and is leading to irresponsible behaviour."

作者：tmsmgn
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